I had a check up today. The bean is no longer a bean but a baby with arms, legs, hands and feet. In three weeks s/he has gone from 18mm to 50mm. Still has a beating heart. Was waving around.
I am at 11 weeks - just too early to do the 1st trimester tests. They will be next Thursday. If they turn out to give a good statistical result, we will have to decide whether we want to have an amniocentesis anyway. The false negative of this 1st trimester test is 10% which sounds HUGE to me.
Statistically 10% of babies with T21 don't have their T21 detected by this test.
Statistically I have a 1% chance of having another baby with T21.
Statistically there is a 0.5% chance of an amniocentesis at 15 weeks causing a miscarriage.
We all know that statistics are a load of crap when you turn out to be the "1" in "1 in 100" or "1 in 200" or even "1 in 4000".
Updated: my appointment is fixed for Wednesday morning.
6 years ago
16 comments:
if you find a reputable place to do a cvs the results are should be pretty accurate. There is no reason why such a test cannot test for downs and any other trisomy as it did for me. it gives results in less than 48 hours as opposed to the amnio.
good for peace of mind as early as possible.
Good luck for next weeks testing.
XXX
These days, whenever I hear a statistic like "1 in whatever number," I know, I just know I'll be the 1. No matter how good the odds are, I've convinced myself that I'll end up on the wrong side of them.
Artblog, I don't think I will go for CVS. I had to make the CVS vs amnio decision for A. and despite the outcome I feel happy about that particular decision - I waited for the amnio.
The risk of miscarriage is slightly higher with CVS and I just can't face it.
Rosepetal,
Regarding amnio loss rates: That 1 in 200 loss stat that everyone used to quote came from studies done in the 1970s when the procedure was fairly new and a lot riskier. Last year a large retrospective study tracking something like 35,000 women (some of whom had amnio, some of whom did not) found that due to better techniques and training, amnio has a loss rate closer to 1 in 1,600.
I know it doesn't take away all the worry once you have been on the short side of a statistical risk ratio (as in the "1" in "1 in whatever") but if you do opt to do an amnio, know that it is actually much safer than previously thought.
glad to hear the good u/s news. just want you to know i check in on you frquently and am puling for you in the biggest way. can't imagine what this must be like for you. sounds terrifying. cant wait to bear virtual witness to your journey that ends with a joyful birth.
really happy for you that the bean is now a baby. I've kept you and the bean in my thoughts these past weeks and hoped to read some good news from you. As for the statistic thing, well not being an overly optimistic person myself, I can't give assvice about what I think you should do. But I think you will make the right decision for yourself. Much love, xC.
I am so glad baby is doing well thus far. I have no input on the testing, but I am pulling for you guys. Grow, Healthy Baby!!
So far so good then.
I will be thinking of you coming up to and on Thursday. I know the stats don't mean much at this point, but I still hope for lots of zeros on the end of your particular 1 in whatever.
Great to hear bub is doing well. I think having the tests/not having the tests are going to be very hard decisions. Thinking of you.
Hugs
xxx
Good news so far. And yeah, it's hard to find comfort in statistics. I'll be thinking of you three in the next week, and hopefully for the next 29 weeks.
Thanks for your kind words on Natan's b-day last week.
yep, always on the wrong side of statistics here, too. It sounds as if baby is doing well in there so far. I am always thinking of you and hoping for the very best. Hope all goes fantastic next week.
I know how you feel about those odds. When I found out about Emma the Genetics Counselor told me is was about like hitting the lottery but on the bad side of the odds. My response to him was well I guess I should have played the lotto. Even with my husbands bad chromosome they gave me a 1% chance of having another baby like Emma. And I was scared to death. I mean hey I hit those odds once why not again. But let me give you a little hope if I can.
Look at me I did it. I beat the odds and you can to my friend. I know you are probably not holding out much hope but I am for you. And I also say talk to them about doing an Amnio as early as they can. We were able to do mine at 14 weeks. I needed to know as soon as possible if everything was ok for many reasons as you understand. But I have to say I have a good feeling this time. And you and baby are on my mind a lot.
As always I am here for you if you need anything. I understand all your fears and worries and I am hear to listen if you need that.
Hi there Rosepetal,
I ditto what Wabi said, and I just want to add that when they analyzed which pregnancies were lost due to the 1 in 1600, the ones turned out to be pregnancies that would've been lost anyway due to a chromosome problem, and rarely due to incompetent Doctors who introduced infection or made other critical mistakes. Basically practice makes perfect.
Same for the NT scan and blood tests. The false positive and negative rates are based on worldwide stats, and include low resolution US scanners, which should never ever be used, and poorly trained techs.
If you go to a high-risk clinic who do dozens of these procedures a day, your odds get even better. Not much comfort if you are the one, but the one thing you can control is which Doc you pick, and that has nothing to do with luck, right?
Rosepetal, one other thing, can you please turn on your feed? I tried to subscribe to you on bloglines, and I can't? And I am the worst manual blog checker on earth!
Rosepetal, thinking of you. How I hate the word "statistically" as I am sure you to do. Hoping sooooo much you get positive good news today (Wed). Fingers crossed for you. xoxox
I'm sorry Aurelia, but I deliberately haven't turned my feed on. I'd like to stay as low profile as possible.....
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